Tuesday, December 4, 2012

$NDX trade for a house payment using $AAPL as gauge

DATE: 12/4/2012 - this is NOT a trade recommendation of any kind. Selling options will lose you money!!! Don't try this at home.

SITUATION:Apple and other major tech names have retraced from recent highs and are showing relative resilience here.

ASSUMPTION: Fiscal cliff won't cause a complete selloff  (10% or more). While $AAPL and other big NDX names are at recent low points I am comfortable assuming they provide me with an inherent put in $NDX.

THE TRADE: So I structure iron condors (Jan or feb or even longer) that are lob-sided to the upside. BUT with a very very tight leash.
Ex1: JAN $NDX iron condor 2550/2525-2875/2900. Today it pays $6.475 to open.
Theoreticals: chances of full profit: 89% for the upper leg; 80% for the lower leg; 70% overall trade.
Rew/risk=.35
Break evens=2540ish, 2880ish
Buffers: 4.1% downside and 8.1% run-up
Dollars at risk=$18.5each (max loss)
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Ex2: JAN $NDX iron condor 2600/2575-2875/2900. Today it pays $8.475 to open.
Theoreticals: chances of full profit: 89% for the upper leg; 70% for the lower leg; 59% overall trade (pretty tight).
Rew/risk=.51 (better than Ex1 since much more aggressive trade)
Break evens=2590ish, 2880ish
Buffers: 2.3% downside and 8.1% run-up
Dollars at risk=$16.5each
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If I am confident that Nasdaq will be between 2600 and 2900 by mar of 2013 then I would gamble on
Ex3: MAR $NDX iron condor 2600/2575-2900/2925. Today it pays $12 to open.
Theoreticals: chances of full profit: 80% for the upper leg; 66% for the lower leg; 49% overall trade (even tighter than Ex2).
Rew/risk=.91 (almost 1to1 since much most aggressive trade)
Break evens=2590ish, 2912ish
Buffers: 2.3% downside and 9% run-up
Dollars at risk=$13each 
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THE ABOVE EXAMPLES ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS; SELLING OPTIONS AND OPTION SPREADS WILL LOSE YOU MONEY. I ONLY TRADE WITH MONTY I CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.  SELLING IRON CONDORS IS TRICKY BUSINESS AND WILL GET YOU IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Fiscal cliff is an $AAPL thief

This much talked about and self-inflicted fiscal cliff is the only thing keeping me from jumping into aapl with both feet. The case for long aapl has been very strong for the past couple of years. This is especially true on this recent pullback! I believe that we have seen the bottom in aapl. The market selloff was to reset aapl at the point when the johnny-come-late-lies piled in at around 525 in late May of 2012.

I think that the selloff down from the highs shook off all the weak hands and the fast money traders. What Steve Jobs left is a machine that has years worth of momentum and it would take a special kind of idiot to mess it up this fast. Regardless of what you think of the new leader of appl, an idiot he is not. The talk of aapl's demise is ludicrous. They have more money than most countries; they generate more money than most countries; they have products that people covet worldwide; all their products sell at a premium! what the f--- else do you want in a company? If you can't risk money on this dynamic then pack up your investing dollars and stick them in a .25% CD!

The only thing that could cause an aapl trade to sour from here is a stupid crisis caused by our beloved (NOT) politicians. I know that the media consensus seems to be that "They" will come to a deal of sorts but I AM NOT SO SURE. They said the same thing about the deadline that ended up causing the US to lose its credit rating yet they took us to the edge and threw us over with no regrets.

Fiscal cliff, you sir are a thief!