Thursday, February 21, 2013
Not A Rotten $AAPL - My Simple Take
Lately, it seems like every expert is announcing the demise of Apple. Consensus is that it's doomed! So What's with Apple? is it a rotten fruit? Not by a long shot. This is a much beloved company for far too long to get a fair evaluation in the typical sense.
The 'evaluators' are most often people who have financially and emotionally invested in it for years. So, In order to properly evaluate Apple, I believe we first need to:
* Eliminate the emotions
* Erase the name
* Ignore the highs and the lows, including the high 1,111 and low 200 price targets
* Forget who bought it and who sold it and how many entities are left owning it too.
Only then that we can look at it from a fresh perspective like a company we've never seen before. So, if you tell me: 'psst I have an interesting company for you. Here are its facts:
* It has an excellent management pedigree
* It has highly regarded products that have a massive cult following
* It sells out of every widget it introduces in minutes and at a premium
* It controls the largest global music marketplace
* It has excellent profit margins that most companies would envy. (Here's an important note about a popular point of contention: often mavens point out the mounting "margin pressure" in Apple. Well, since monopolies are illegal 'margin pressure' is a fact of life for EVERY company!)
* Oh and by the way, this company has an insane cash position that would allow it to buy its way to the top of any industry it chooses
After hearing you tell me the aforementioned facts all I would ask you then: "how much of a premium would I have to pay for this company? What? Priced only under 10times? My answer is an emphatic: "deal me in; it's clear to me that there is more upside potential than downside risk from here."
THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL STOCKS OR STOCK OPTIONS.