If I were trading oil I wouldn't bank on war anytime soon. I believe that I do have a "tell" to give me the heads up that it's coming. Here are my thoughts (and this is my humble opinion):
Look at the map shown below and follow along:
SITUATION: Israel is nervous about Iran developing weapons. Since the world has not been successful in halting these Iranian efforts, Israel has stepped up the talks about taking matters into its own hands and attacking Iran.
- Hizbollah: now largely based in Lebanon-just north of Israel has proven itself to be a major thorn in Israel's side. Last time Israel tried to attack it in Lebanon they failed and hizbollah proved that it can put up a good fight on Israel's border. Hizbollah is an Iran powered party so it represents Iran at the Israeli border.
- Iraq: As soon as the US left Iraq it became an extension of Iran. Meaning that Iran can access it for transit purposes.
- Syria: this is the KEY LINK to this issue. As we already know the country is in turmoil. Syria is pro Iran.
ALREADY GOING ON: for decades, Iran has been feeding Hizbollah resources (weapons included). The weapons route has been Iran-->Iraq-->Syria-->Lebanon. Once the US left Iraq the route was re-established. Also for decades Syria has been an very loyal ally of Russia (I think of it as a mini Russia). So far Russia has not backed the world in forcing Syria's president out of office.
UNLESS SYRIA FALLS, ISRAEL WILL NOT ATTACK IRAN! It would be foolish for Israel to wage war far away (in Iran) AND have to worry about another war front with mini Iran (hizbollah) at its own borders. So far, Russia has not shown any inclination that it wants Syria to fall.
here is a map of the area so see if makes sense to you: