Friday, October 19, 2012

$GOOG and $AAPL worries


The Sentiment: EVERYONE is worried that google can't monetize mobile.
A Few Facts:
Fact: google dominates search monitization with no second place in sight. MSFT tried hard and got on tv advertising its alternative to no avail (other than the initial pop).
Fact: everyone agrees that mobile 'seems' to be the wave of the future.
Fact: Google is working hard at it. And given its know-how on search and its formidable war-chest it has the best chance at succeeding than any one else. It's like expecting NASA to get to Mars 1st and not a new-comer like the Bronson effort to conquer space.

Possible Outcomes:
Scenario 1: mobile search fails in general and google remains the king of the desktop search => buy google
Scenario 2: mobile search really takes off as people embrace 'buying' on smart phones and who better to capitalize on this other than the owner of more than half of the world smart phones? google! => buy google.
Scenario 3: we get hit by an EM blast and we lose all tech worldwide => sell everything.

Scenario 3 is not a smart ass remark; it's to say that anything can happen at any time BUT BUT BUT if I can't risk money on companies like google and apple (who dominate ALL competition) then I should stick my money in a bank for .25% interest and call it a day. Mid to long term, Google and Apple are solid bets.


THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION. I ONLY TRADE WITH MONEY I CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. OPTIONS ARE DANGEROUS AND CAN LOSE MONEY FAST.