Wednesday, January 23, 2013

$AAPL $300? No Mr. & Mrs Maven

Can't put this in a 140 character post on twitter so here it is:
My simplified AAPL overview:

* MY BEEF: I keep hearing mavens saying 'if it weren't apple then no one would be surprised it's down that much.' Even one genius called it a broken company, etc.

* MY STATEMENT:  My answer to the aforementioned mavens: "but it IS Apple Mr. or Mrs. maven. You can't just make believe it's not. It's still that same company that sells EVERY widget it makes and at a premium! It still has more cash that most countries. AND it still has most of the modern world as devout fans. AND it still owns the way we ALL buy music, etc."

* MY TAKE: Apple dooms-dayers now littering the media with forecast of 300/share for apple. Keep it simple: take a 2 year trend and add my trusty YELLOW MARKER trend line, you can draw a line (best fit to 2yrs ago performance-not the crazy run up it had) that gets you to about where it's trading after hours. So what? let's use the mavens words and say: 'take out the name Apple from this chart and you get just the normal medium growth company plugging along just fine!' This means that the $300 price forecasts for Apple are just as crazy as the infamous 1,111 call!

Disclosure: I have a small long Feb position (Credit puts spread) that is still way out-of-the money even at 480 AND I am long weekly puts that I will cash in tomorrow. So I am not biased based on any hurt long position.