Friday, March 30, 2012

$AAPL trade that has made a house pmt

UPDATE: (since i posted this about an hour ago)

$AAPL here is the update i promised earlier this am regarding to the trade that made the house payment.

3/30: Sold another weekly $AAPL Iron condor during the woosh down around 7.40am pst. I had an order for the 585/80 -630/635 saved and pricing got juicy over a dollar. But, I stayed on the conservative side and reset the order to 575/570 - 630/635.
So when aapl was 600 premium for this iron condor was .76. I did this 12x and collected 886.70.
Here are the theoretical probabilities for this trade
* Sold aapl weekly credit put spread 575/570 (575put delta is .15; 86% chance that aapl won't breach 575 by next friday)
* sold aapl weekly credit call spread 630/635 (630call delta .12; also 86% chance that aapl won't breach 630 by next friday)
sure anything can happen but these are decent odds for me.

I originally posted a similar trade a couple of weeks back (you can find the post in this blog) only the header was "$aapl trade that could make a car payment." The trade was successful for almost max profit and made decent buck.
I then tweeted that I did the same trade on weeklies expiring today 3/30 and that one looks like it will expire worthless for full profit if apple stays between 570 and 625. If so then i would have netted $1,088.94 by selling an Iron condor 570/565 - 525/530.
So at this point it's more than a car payment; it's more like a house payment.
Having succeeded twice, I will look to put this trade on today and will tweet it later if I do. today's aapl price action is not good but i feel confident that we can find a weekly trade that will fund a go-kart race perhaps.

weekly trades recap:
3/30: look to put a trade on. will tweet it when i do.
3/22: weekly aapl Iron condor for credit of $1088.94 will expire today for max profit
3/19: weekly aapl Iron condor for credit of $823.16 got full profit less 70.83 to close it on last day

As with any trade there are risks but in this case the I am very comfortable with the dollars at risk. I always try to know and manage my risk; I ask 'what will I lose if the crap hit the fan in the worst possible way.' If I know the answer to this and am ok with it then I should be ok.


$AAPL $AMZN $bidu $SPX $NDX $RUT $C $GS $wynn $SPY $GOOG